A Cased-Based Reasoning Decision Support System

Lan-rong YANG


Each bidding contractors estimates his likely costs of carrying out the work detailed in the project schedules and adds a percentage markup to form the bid value. The value of the markup crucially influences the chances of a bidder winning the contract. Clearly, a low markup value should increases the chance of winning but decrease the profit, whilst a high markup should increase the profit but decrease the chance of winning the contract. It is very difficult for contractors to decide a proper markup, which happens to produce a satisfactory balance between the probability of winning the contract and the profit generated as a result of winning the contract. This paper presents a case-based reasoning decision support system (CBR-DSS) that assists contractors in solving markup estimation problem. The CRR-DSS uses successful cases of previous completed projects to derive solution to new project markup estimation problem. The principle of the CBR-DSS is to analogy new project with previous projects.
Key Words: Case-Based Reasoning, DSS, Bidding, Markup
Résumé: Chaque contracteur demandé estime son coût d’application d’un travail détaillé dans les horaires et ajoute un percentage de maquillage pour avoir l’offre qui influence crucialement une éventuelle réussite d’un contrat. Evidemment une petite valeur de maquillage doit augmenter les chances de gagner mais réduire le profit tandis que un grand maquillage doit augmenter le profit mais réduire les chances d’arriver à un contract. Il est très difficile pour les contracteurs de décider une offre convenable, qui éventuellement produit une balance de satisfaction entre la probabilité d’achever le contrat et le profit considéré comme une réussite d’un contrat. Ce document présente un système du support decision rationnel basé sur les cas (CBR-DSS) qui permet aux contracteurs de s’engager dans la solution des problèmes estimés et demandés. Le CRR-DSS utilise des réussites de programmes pré-achévés qui servent à résoudre les problèmes d’estimation dans un nouveau programme. Le principe de CBR-DSS est trouver les solutions pour de nouveaux programmes par analogie ceux pré-achévés.
Mots clés: Raisonnement basé sur les cas, DSS, offre, maquillage, acquisition Governmentale

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/j.css.1923669720050103.006


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