Research on the Demand Forecasting Method of Sichuan Social Logistics Based on Positive Weight Combination

Xuelei WANG, Ying YAN, Jingping FENG, Jiandong XIANG

Abstract


The macro-social logistics demand forecast is of great strategic significance to optimize the national or regional economic structure, improve the investment environment and improve the overall competitiveness of regional economy. In this study, the total amount of social logistics in Sichuan province was selected to reflect the social logistics demand, the factors influencing the social logistics demand in Sichuan province were analyzed, and eight economic indicators were summarized. This study first USES the time series prediction model (including the time response model GM (1, 1)), an exponential smoothing model, causal relation model (including multidimensional prediction model GM (1, n) and BP neural network model), to build four methods combination model, weight given solution of linear programming each forecast model, the forecasting result of combination forecast model deviation is minimal. The posterior difference test was applied to the above five models to compare the prediction results of each prediction method.


Keywords


Social logistics demand forecasting; Total social logistics; Combined prediction model

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/10441

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