To Alleviate the Ebola Virus Epidemic Diffusion

Jianqiu YU, Zhe CAO, Qiuping LAI

Abstract


The emergence of new drug can stop Ebola and cure patients whose disease is not advanced. It optimizes the eradication of Ebola, or at least its current strain. For the sake of dealing with this problem, there are three models being developed.
Firstly, this paper establishes the model 1 on the basis of the classical model of SIR and diffusion characteristic of Ebola virus. It verifies the reduction of the spread of the virus, the improvement of the patient’s cure rate and the effectiveness of three preventive measures which are significant in the formation of herd immunity. At the same time, we use linear programming to control the cost of drug delivery.
Model 2, namely, the model of SIR with pulse vaccination, provides a pulse vaccination therapy on the basis of model 1. Model 2 considers many factors comprehensively, such as the cycle of inoculation, vaccination rate, the birth rate, death rate and so on. We use differential equation models to get the critical condition of the number of susceptible people, vaccination rate, and the development of predicated estimate with the change of time.
Next, based on the model 2, we establish model 3 which not only considers many factors comprehensively, such as the amount of supply, the location of supply and so on, but also introduce 0-1 variable to combine the general linear programming with another linear programming which is not fixed but multi objectives so that we get the drug delivery network. Meanwhile, this paper obtains the best drug delivery program which has to spend the minimum cost on the condition of effectively controlling the epidemic. Also the result can alleviate serious situation of the Ebola virus epidemic diffusion through the drug delivery network.

This paper puts forward the improvement of the model by using the Self-Organizing Map neural network and cluster analysis to get the urgent degree of different epidemic areas and divide these areas into different priorities. We get a goal programming model based on different priority. Furthermore, we use the drug delivery model and Lingo to get a more reliable drug delivery program on the basis of the objective function of priority.


Keywords


Ebola; SIR; Differential equation; Linear equation; Drug delivery network

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/6871

DOI (PDF): http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/pdf_15

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