Empirical Analysis on the Relation Between Population Aging and Resident Consumption in China: Based on the Data From 1981 to 2011

Hanlin SUN


Human is the object of social activities. The change of population age structure will impact on the level of collective consumption. Nowadays, the situation of population aging in our country presents the obvious acceleration, which brings a multiple of unexpected troubles. In conclusion, study the influence of the population aging in China consumption, not only enables us to the relationship between the two has a clear theoretical knowledge. At the same time can also be for the current response to provide the corresponding reference and reference. Based on the time series data of consumption, GDP and the ratio of the old to the teenager from 1981 to 2011.Using co-integration theory, an error correction model, vector auto-regression model,this paper does an empirical analysis on the relation between population aging, GDP and old—teenager ratio in China. The analysis shows that there is long-rim stable relation among resident consumption, GDP and old-teenager ratio. Population aging has negative influence on resident consumption.


An aging population; Residents consumption; Johansen cointegration; AVR

Full Text:



Wu, W. J., & Xu, Q. (1988) .Population aging influence in the social economy development and families (pp.26-33). Beijing: Labor and Personnel Press.

Barro, R., Mankiw, N., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Capital mobility in neoclassical models of growth. American Economic Review, 85(01), 103-115.

Ceng, J., Li, L., Gu, B. C., & Lin, Y. F. (2006). Population in China and economic development in the 21st century. Social Sciences Academic Press (China).

Data sources. (2013, October 18). Retrieved from http://www.ngd.org.cn/czyz/sqmy/10300.htm

Dormont, B., Grignon, M., & Huber, H. (2006). Health expenditure growth: Reassessing the threat of aging. Health Economics, (09), 947-963.

Evangelos, V. (2007).On the macroeconomic implications of population aging for health and education policies. Explorations in Health Economics Paper, iHEA 6th World Congress.

Fougere, M., & Merette, M. (1999). Population aging and economic growth in seven OECD countries. Economic Modelling, (01), 411-427.

Kellay, R. S. (1996). Dependency and development. Journal of Population Economics, (9), 365.

Kraay. (2000). Household saving in China.World Bank Economic Review, (14), 545-570.

Leff. (1969). Dependency rate and saving rate. American Economic Review, (59), 476-80.

Légaré. (2004). Diversity and convergence of population aging: Evidence from China and Canada. Canadian Studies in Population, (01), 87.

Li, C. Q., & Zhang, J. P. (2009).The effect of the changes in population age structure on the rural resident’s consumption behavior. Chinese Journal of Population Science, (06),14.

Li, H. (2010). Economic analysis of population aging: A review of recent literatures. Economic Review, (01), 154-155.

Li, W. X., & Xu, C. S. (2008). Population aging and household consumption in China. Economic Research Journal, (07), 118.

liu, Z. Q., & He, Q. (2012). Aging, economic growth and fiscal policy. China Economic Quarterly, (01), 119.

Ma, L., & Gui, J. F. (2011) .China’s ageing population strategy research. Review of Economic Research, (34), 3-4.

Modigliani, F., & Cao, S. L. (2004). The Chinese saving puzzle and the life - Cycle hypothesis. Journal of Economic Literature, (42), 145.

Peng, X. Z., & Hu, Z. (2011).China’s population aging from perspective of public policy. Social Sciences in China, (03), 122.

Pietro, S. (2010). Population dynamics and life-cycle consumption. Journal of Population Economics, (2), 53.

Rodrigo A. C. (2005). On social security financial crisis. Journal of Population Economics, (3), 214.

Song, B. Q., & Lin, X. W. (2010).The effect of the changes in population age structure on the urban resident’s consumption behavior. Population & Economics, (04), 12.

Vegard, S. (2013).The Flynn effect and population aging. Intelligence, (03).

Wang, J. Y., & Fu, X. B. (2006). Considering the aging of population structure changes of consumption function econometric analysisin China—Chinese aging of population’s impact on consumption. Population Research, (1), 82.

Wang, M. Z., & Ding, Q. D. (2013). Research on the impact of population aging on consumption. Business China, (07), 27.

Wu, C. P., & Xie, N. (2011). Theoretical analysis of the aging of population in China. Social Science of Beijing, (01), 7.

Yu, X. J. (1995). Economics research on aging of population in China (p.213). Beijing: The Population of China Press.

Zheng, X. Q. (2009). The impact of China aging of population on newspaper consumer market—Empirical analysis based on the aging degree and newspaper quantity. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University ( Social Sciences Edition ), 26 (3).

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/4981


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c)

Share us to:   


  • How to do online submission to another Journal?
  • If you have already registered in Journal A, then how can you submit another article to Journal B? It takes two steps to make it happen:

1. Register yourself in Journal B as an Author

  • Find the journal you want to submit to in CATEGORIES, click on “VIEW JOURNAL”, “Online Submissions”, “GO TO LOGIN” and “Edit My Profile”. Check “Author” on the “Edit Profile” page, then “Save”.

2. Submission

  • Go to “User Home”, and click on “Author” under the name of Journal B. You may start a New Submission by clicking on “CLICK HERE”.

We only use three mailboxes as follows to deal with issues about paper acceptance, payment and submission of electronic versions of our journals to databases:
caooc@hotmail.com; mse@cscanada.net; mse@cscanada.org

 Articles published in Management Science and Engineering are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY).


Address:1055 Rue Lucien-L'Allier, Unit #772, Montreal, QC H3G 3C4, Canada.

Telephone: 1-514-558 6138
Http://www.cscanada.net Http://www.cscanada.org

Copyright © 2010 Canadian Research & Development Centre of Sciences and Cultures