Empirical Analysis on the Relation Between Population Aging and Resident Consumption in China: Based on the Data From 1981 to 2011

Hanlin SUN

Abstract


Human is the object of social activities. The change of population age structure will impact on the level of collective consumption. Nowadays, the situation of population aging in our country presents the obvious acceleration, which brings a multiple of unexpected troubles. In conclusion, study the influence of the population aging in China consumption, not only enables us to the relationship between the two has a clear theoretical knowledge. At the same time can also be for the current response to provide the corresponding reference and reference. Based on the time series data of consumption, GDP and the ratio of the old to the teenager from 1981 to 2011.Using co-integration theory, an error correction model, vector auto-regression model,this paper does an empirical analysis on the relation between population aging, GDP and old—teenager ratio in China. The analysis shows that there is long-rim stable relation among resident consumption, GDP and old-teenager ratio. Population aging has negative influence on resident consumption.


Keywords


An aging population; Residents consumption; Johansen cointegration; AVR

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/4981

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