Trends and Characteristics in China’s Industrial Sectors ––Analysis Based on the Gm (1, 1) Model with the Seventh Weakness Operator

Abstract

This paper measured the influence and induction coefficients of the main industrial sectors of China in 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2002, based on the input-output tables of the four years, using the input-output methods, and discovered those sectors that have the strongest pulling or supporting effects in favor of national economic growth. The GM (1, 1) model with the seventh weakness operator was then applied to analyze the trends and characteristics in those sectors that predictably have the strongest pulling or supporting effects for economic growth in 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022. In particular, the current study shows that, as those sectors of the strongest supporting effects are typically the greatest waste producers and environmental threats, China must establish the industrial chains with such sectors, which may serve as an avenue to circular economy.

Key words: Influence coefficient; Induction coefficient; Pulling effect; Supporting effect; GM (1, 1) model