Discussion and Application Study on GDP Combination Forecasting Method

Yan LU

Abstract


A combination model of GM (1, 1) model, nonlinear and chaotic dynamics model, and nonlinear quadratic autoregressive model for forecasting GDP has been built. As the GDP data for the test in 2012 of Henan Province, results showed that the three prediction models having higher prediction accuracy can be used for long-term GDP forecasts. Then GDP in 2013-2022 of Henan Province was forecasted by these three forecasting models and the GDP forecast results in 2013-2022 of Henan Province with geometric average of the forecasting outcome of these three forecasting models was given.

Keywords


GDP; GM (1, 1) model; Logistic mapping; Nonlinear autoregressive model

Full Text:

PDF

References


Bates, J. M. , & Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Combination of Forecasts. Operations Research Quarterly, 20(4), 451- 468.

Białowolski, P., Kuszewski, T., & Witkowski, B. (2014). Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data. Empirica, 41, 53-68.

Bunn, D. W. (1989). Forecasting with More Than One Model. Journal of Forecasting, 8(3), 161- 166.

Cao, D. L., He, C. H., & Li X. F. (2008). Based on the combination gray linear regression model in henan province GDP forecast. Journal of Henan Agricultural University, (4), 469-472.

De Langen, P. W. (2012). Combining models and commodity chain research for making long-term projections of port throughput: An application to the Hamburg-Le Havre range. European Journal of Transport and Infrastrure Research, 12, 310-331.

Jaditz, T., & Sayers, C. L. (1993). Is chaos generic in eeonomic data? International Journal of Bifuretin and chaos, (3), 745-755.

Lam, K. F., Mui, H. W., & Yuen, H. K. (2001). A Note on Minimi2zing Absolute Percentage Error in Combined Forecasts. Computers & Operations Research, 28(11), 1141- 1147.

Li. T. Y., & Yorke, J. A. (1975). Period three implies chaos. American Mathematical Monthly, 82, 985-992.

Liu, B. Z., & Peng, J. H. (2004). Nonlinear dynamics. Beijing: Higher Education Press.

Liu, S. F., Guo, T. B., & Dang Y. G. (1999). Grey system theory and its application. Beijing, China: Science Press.

Liu, Y. Z., & Xuan, H. Y. (2004). Chaotic time series and its GDP in China (1978- 2000) to predict the application. Journal of management engineering, 17(2), 8-10.

Long, W., & Wang, H. W. (2008). Curve classification modeling method and its application in many regional GDP forecast. Journal of systems engineering theory and practice, 3, 71-75.

Su, W. L. (2003). Gross domestic product (GDP) of nonlinear chaotic prediction. Journal of quantitative technical economics, 2, 127-130.

Tang, X. W., Zhou, Z. F., & Shi, Y. (2002). The error bounds of combined forecasting. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 36(9), 997- 1005.

Wei, S. Q., He, Y., & Jiang, W. (2007). Based on ARMA model - the ARCH combination forecast GDP. Journal of statistics and decision making. Statistics and decision making, 5, 21-22.

Xiao, Z., & Wu, W. (2008). Combination forecast method based on PSO - PLS application in GDP forecas. Journal of Management Science, 21(3), 115-119.

Xu, J. X., Yan, Yon, & Yan, F. H. (2008). GDP forecasts the application of exponential smoothing in a typical city [J]. Water conservancy science and technology with economy, 14 (7), 551-554.

Chinese statistical yearbook (2013). Beijing: China Statistics Press.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/5622

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c)




Share us to:   


Reminder

  • How to do online submission to another Journal?
  • If you have already registered in Journal A, then how can you submit another article to Journal B? It takes two steps to make it happen:

1. Register yourself in Journal B as an Author

  • Find the journal you want to submit to in CATEGORIES, click on “VIEW JOURNAL”, “Online Submissions”, “GO TO LOGIN” and “Edit My Profile”. Check “Author” on the “Edit Profile” page, then “Save”.

2. Submission

  • Go to “User Home”, and click on “Author” under the name of Journal B. You may start a New Submission by clicking on “CLICK HERE”.


We only use three mailboxes as follows to deal with issues about paper acceptance, payment and submission of electronic versions of our journals to databases:
caooc@hotmail.com; mse@cscanada.net; mse@cscanada.org

 Articles published in Management Science and Engineering are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY).

 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Editorial Office

Address:1020 Bouvier Street, Suite 400, Quebec City, Quebec, G2K 0K9, Canada.

Telephone: 1-514-558 6138
Http://www.cscanada.net Http://www.cscanada.org

Copyright © 2010 Canadian Research & Development Centre of Sciences and Cultures