The application of Bayesian Model Averaging in Macroeconomy

Abstract

Bayesian Model Averaging is a weighted averaging method based on posterior distribution. It considers comprehensively the prior and sample information of model and parameter, reduces the model uncertainty. Bayesian Model Averaging improves statistical inference accuracy and provides improved out-of-sample predictive performance. In this paper, we outline the details of the Bayesian model averaging principle, introduce the application of Bayesian Model Averaging in macroeconomy and give an example about the application of Bayesian Model Averaging in GDP research.

Key words: Bayesian Model Averaging; Model uncertainty; Macroeconomy