Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model

Abstract

With the population data of Jilin Province from the year 1949 to 2009 and valid population growth change rates, this paper intends to predict the population growth trend of Jilin province by a comparative study conducted under the Malthusian Population Model and Logistic Model and to explore the accuracy of these two models. It then comes to the conclusion that the population of Jilin province will reach the peak when it amounts to 33 million, that is to say, the net population growth rate tends to be a stable one, namely to be zero.

Key words: Malthusian population model; Logistic model; Population growth rate; Comparison